Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to unsafe water and lack of sanitation and hygiene in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of diarrhoeal disease is closely linked to socioeconomic and environmental factors, household practices and access to health services. South African (SA) district health information and national survey data report wide variation in the incidence and prevalence of diarrhoeal episodes in children under 5 years of age. These differentials indicate potential for reducing the disease burden through improvements in provision of water and sanitation services and changes in hygiene behaviour. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the burden of disease attributed to unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) by province, sex and age group for SA in 2000, 2006 and 2012. METHODS: Comparative risk assessment methodology was used to estimate the disease burden attributable to an exposure by comparing the observed risk factor distribution with a theoretical lowest possible population distribution. The study adapts the original World Health Organization scenario-based approach for estimating diarrhoeal disease burden from unsafe WASH, by assigning different standards of household water and sanitation-specific geographical classification to capture SA living conditions in rural, urban and informal settlements. RESULTS: SA experienced an improvement in water and sanitation supply in eight of the nine provinces between 2001 and 2011, with the exception of Northern Cape Province. In 2011, 41% of South Africans lived with poor water and sanitation conditions; however, wide provincial inequalities exist. In 2012, it was estimated that 84.1% of all deaths due to diarrhoeal disease were attributable to unsafe WASH; this equates to 13 757 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 13 015 - 14 300). Of these diarrhoeal disease deaths, 48.2% occurred in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 13.9% of all deaths in this age group (95% UI 13.1 - 14.4). Between 2000 and 2012, the proportion of deaths attributable to diarrhoea reduced from 3.6% to 2.6%. Gauteng and Western Cape provinces experienced much lower WASHattributable death rates than the more rural, poorer provinces. CONCLUSION: Unsafe WASH remains an important risk factor for disease in SA, especially in children. High priority needs to be given to the provision of safe and sustainable sanitation and water facilities and promoting safe hygiene behaviours. The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the critical importance of clean water for preventing and containing disease.

Overview.

BACKGROUND: South Africa (SA) faces multiple health challenges. Quantifying the contribution of modifiable risk factors can be used to identify and prioritise areas of concern for population health and opportunities for health promotion and disease prevention interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the attributable burden of 18 modifiable risk factors for 2000, 2006 and 2012. METHODS: Comparative risk assessment (CRA), a standardised and systematic approach, was used to estimate the attributable burden of 18 risk factors. Risk exposure estimates were sourced from local data, and meta-regressions were used to model the parameters, depending on the availability of data. Risk-outcome pairs meeting the criteria for convincing or probable evidence were assessed using relative risks against a theoretical minimum risk exposure level to calculate either a potential impact fraction or population attributable fraction (PAF). Relative risks were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) study as well as published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden was calculated for each risk factor for 2000, 2006 and 2012 by applying the PAF to estimates of deaths and years of life lost from the Second South African National Burden of Disease Study (SANBD2). Uncertainty analyses were performed using Monte Carlo simulation, and age-standardised rates were calculated using the World Health Organization standard population. RESULTS: Unsafe sex was the leading risk factor across all years, accounting for one in four DALYs (26.6%) of the estimated 20.6 million DALYs in 2012. The top five leading risk factors for males and females remained the same between 2000 and 2012. For males, the leading risks were (in order of descending rank): unsafe sex; alcohol consumption; interpersonal violence; tobacco smoking; and high systolic blood pressure; while for females the leading risks were unsafe sex; interpersonal violence; high systolic blood pressure; high body mass index; and high fasting plasma glucose. Since 2000, the attributable age-standardised death rates decreased for most risk factors. The largest decrease was for household air pollution (-41.8%). However, there was a notable increase in the age-standardised death rate for high fasting plasma glucose (44.1%), followed by ambient air pollution (7%). CONCLUSION: This study reflects the continued dominance of unsafe sex and interpersonal violence during the study period, as well as the combined effects of poverty and underdevelopment with the emergence of cardiometabolic-related risk factors and ambient air pollution as key modifiable risk factors in SA. Despite reductions in the attributable burden of many risk factors, the study reveals significant scope for health promotion and disease prevention initiatives and provides an important tool for policy makers to influence policy and programme interventions in the country.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to childhood stunting, wasting and underweight in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

BACKGROUND: National estimates of childhood undernutrition display uncertainty; however, it is known that stunting is the most prevalent deficiency. Child undernutrition is manifest in poor communities but is a modifiable risk factor. The intention of the study was to quantify trends in the indicators of child undernutrition to aid policymakers. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the burden of diseases attributable to stunting, wasting and underweight and their aggregate effects in South African (SA) children under the age of 5 years during 2000, 2006 and 2012. METHODS: The study applied comparative risk assessment methodology. Data sources for estimates of prevalence and population distribution of exposure in children under 5 years were the National Food Consumption surveys and the SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted close to the target year of burden. Childhood undernutrition was estimated for stunting, wasting and underweight and their combined 'aggregate effect' using the World Health Organization (WHO) 2006 standard. Population-attributable fractions for the disease outcomes of diarrhoea, lower respiratory tract infections, measles and protein-energy malnutrition were applied to SA burden of disease estimates of deaths, years of life lost, years lived with a disability and disability-adjusted life years for 2000, 2006 and 2012. RESULTS: Among children aged under 5 years between 1999 and 2012, the distribution of anthropometric measurements <‒2 standard deviations from the WHO median showed little change for stunting (28.4% v. 26.6%), wasting (2.6% v. 2.8%) and underweight (7.6% v. 6.1%). In the same age group in 2012, attributable deaths due to wasting and aggregated burden accounted for 21.4% and 33.2% of the total deaths, respectively. Attributable death rates due to wasting and aggregate effects decreased from ~310 per 100 000 in 2006 to 185 per 100 000 in 2012. CONCLUSION: The study shows that reduction of childhood undernutrition would have a substantial impact on child mortality. We need to understand why we are not penetrating the factors related to nutrition of children that will lead to reducing levels of stunting.

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic on mortality in South Africa in 2020.

BACKGROUND: The impacts on mortality of both the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and the interventions to manage it differ between countries. The Rapid Mortality Surveillance System set up by the South African Medical Research Council based on data from the National Population Register (NPR) provides a means of tracking this impact on mortality in South Africa. OBJECTIVES: To report on the change in key metrics of mortality (numbers of deaths, life expectancy at birth, life expectancy at age 60, and infant, under-5, older child and adolescent, young adult, and adult mortality) over the period 2015 - 2020. The key features of the impact are contrasted with those measured in other countries. METHODS: The numbers of registered deaths by age and sex recorded on the NPR were increased to account for both registered deaths that are not captured by the NPR and an estimate of deaths not reported. The estimated numbers of deaths together with estimates of the numbers in the population in the middle of each of the years were used to produce life tables and calculate various indicators. RESULTS: Between 2019 and 2020, the number of deaths increased by nearly 53 000 (65% female), and life expectancy at birth fell by 1 year for females and by only 2.5 months for males. Life expectancy at age 60 decreased by 1.6 years for females and 1.2 years for males. Infant mortality, under-5 mortality and mortality of children aged 5 - 14 decreased by 22%, 20% and 10%, respectively, while that for older children and adolescents decreased by 11% for males and 5% for females. Premature adult mortality, the probability of a 15-year-old dying before age 60, increased by 2% for males and 9% for females. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 and the interventions to manage it had differential impacts on mortality by age and sex. The impact of the epidemic on life expectancy in 2020 differs from that in most other, mainly developed, countries, both in the limited decline and also in the greater impact on females. These empirical estimates of life expectancy and mortality rates are not reflected by estimates from agencies, either because agency estimates have yet to be updated for the impact of the epidemic or because they have not allowed for the impact correctly. Trends in weekly excess deaths suggest that the drop in life expectancy in 2021 will be greater than that in 2020.

Child mortality trends and causes of death in South Africa, 1997 - 2012, and the importance of a national burden of disease study.

BACKGROUND: The Rapid Mortality Surveillance System has reported reductions in child mortality rates in recent years in South Africa (SA). In this article, we present information about levels of mortality and causes of death from the second SA National Burden of Disease Study (SA NBD) to inform the response required to reduce child mortality further. OBJECTIVES: To estimate trends in and causes of childhood mortality at national and provincial levels for the period 1997 - 2012, to highlight the importance of the SA NBD. METHODS: Numbers of registered child deaths were adjusted for under-reporting. Adjustments were made for the misclassification of AIDS deaths and the proportion of ill-defined natural causes. Non-natural causes were estimated using results from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System for 2000 and the National Injury Mortality Survey for 2009. Six neonatal conditions and 11 other causes were consolidated from the SA NBD and the Child Health Epidemiological Reference Group lists of causes of death for the analysis. The NBD cause-fractions were compared with those from Statistics South Africa, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). RESULTS: Under-5 mortality per 1 000 live births increased from 65 in 1997 to 79 in 2004 as a result of HIV/AIDS, before dropping to 40 by 2012. The neonatal mortality rate declined from 1997 to 2001, followed by small variations. The death rate from diarrhoeal diseases began to decrease in 2008 and the death rate from pneumonia from 2010. By 2012, neonatal deaths accounted for 27% of child deaths, with conditions associated with prematurity, birth asphyxia and severe infections being the main contributors. In 1997, KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, Mpumalanga and Eastern Cape provinces had the highest under-5 mortality, close to 80 per 1 000 live births. Mortality rates in North West were in the mid-range and then increased, placing this province in the highest group in the later years. The Western Cape had the lowest mortality rate, declining throughout the period apart from a slight increase in the early 2000s. CONCLUSIONS: The SA NBD identified the causes driving the trends, making it clear that prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, the Expanded Programme on Immunisation and programmes aimed at preventing neonatal deaths need to be equitably implemented throughout the country to address persistent provincial inequalities in child deaths. The rapid reduction of childhood mortality since 2005 suggests that the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal target of 25 per 1 000 for under-5 mortality is achievable for SA. Comparison with alternative estimates highlights the need for cause-of-death data from civil registration to be adjusted using a burden-of-disease approach.

Burden of disease in South Africa: Protracted transitions driven by social pathologies.

For several decades, researchers from the South African Medical Research Council have made invaluable contributions towards improving the health of the population through the analysis and interpretation of cause of death data. This article reflects the mortality trends in pre-and post-apartheid South Africa (SA), and describes efforts to improve vital statistics, innovations to fill data gaps, and studies to estimate the burden of disease after adjusting for data deficiencies. The profound impact of HIV/AIDS, particularly among black African children and young adults, is striking, within a protracted epidemiological transition and the current reversals of multiple epidemics. Over the next 20 years, it will be important to sustain and enhance the country's capacity to collect, analyse and utilise cause of death data. SA needs to support development in the region, harnessing new data platforms and approaches such as including verbal autopsy tools in the official system and improving data linkage.

Neonatal, infant and child health in South Africa: Reflecting on the past towards a better future.

Although the neonatal mortality rate in South Africa (SA) has remained stagnant at 12 deaths per 1 000 live births, the infant and under-5 mortality rates have significantly declined since peaking in 2003. Policy changes that have influenced this decline include policies to prevent vertical HIV transmission, earlier treatment of children living with HIV, expanded immunisation policies, strengthening breastfeeding practices, and health policies to contain tobacco and sugar use. The Sustainable Development Goals (2016 - 2030) have shifted the focus from keeping children alive, as expressed in the Millennium Development Goals (1990 - 2015), to achieving optimal health through the 'Survive, thrive and transform' global agenda. This paper focuses on important remaining causes of childhood mortality and morbidity in SA, specifically respiratory illness, environmental pollution, tuberculosis, malnutrition and vaccine-preventable conditions. The monitoring of maternal and child health (MCH) outcomes is crucial, and has improved in SA through both the District Health Information and Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems, although gaps remain. Intermittent surveys and research augment the routinely collected data. However, availability and use of local data to inform quality and effectiveness of care is critical, and this requires ownership at the collection point to facilitate local redress. Potential game changers to improve MCH outcomes include mobile health and community-based interventions. In SA, improved MCH remains a crucial factor for human capital development. There is a pressing need to focus beyond childhood mortality and to ensure that each child thrives.

Mortality trends in the City of Cape Town between 2001 and 2013: Reducing inequities in health.

BACKGROUND: The City of Cape Town (CoCT), South Africa, has collected cause-of-death data from death certificates for many years to monitor population health. In 2000, the CoCT and collaborators set up a local mortality surveillance system to provide timeous mortality data at subdistrict level. Initial analyses revealed large disparities in health across subdistricts and directed the implementation of public health interventions aimed at reducing these disparatities. OBJECTIVES: To describe the changes in mortality between 2001 and 2013 in health subdistricts in the CoCT. METHODS: Pooled mortality data for the periods 2001 - 2004 and 2010 - 2013, from a local mortality surveillance system in the CoCT, were analysed by age, gender, cause of death and health subdistrict. Age-specific mortality rates for each period were calculated and age-standardised using the world standard population, and then compared across subdistricts. RESULTS: All-cause mortality in the CoCT declined by 8% from 938 to 863 per 100 000 between 2001 - 2004 and 2010 - 2013. Mortality in males declined more than in females owing to a large reduction in male injury mortality, particularly firearm-related homicide. HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) mortality dropped by ~10% in both males and females, but there was a marked shift to older ages. Mortality in children aged <5 years dropped markedly, mostly owing to reductions in HIV/AIDS and TB mortality. Health inequities between subdistricts were reduced, with the highest-burden subdistricts achieving the largest reductions in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Local mortality surveillance provides important data for planning, implementing and evaluating targeted health interventions at small-area level. Trends in mortality over the past decade indicate some gains in health and equity, but highlight the need for multisectoral interventions to focus on HIV and TB and homicide and the emerging epidemic of non-communicable diseases.

What is the infant mortality rate in South Africa? The need for improved data.

OBJECTIVE: To review recent infant mortality and birth registration data in South Africa and to investigate geographical differences. OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimates of infant mortality rates, proportion of births not registered, and proportion of births recorded in health services. METHODS: 1. Published infant mortality data for South Africa were collated. Demographic data from national household surveys (1993 and 1994 October Household Surveys and the 1993 Poverty Survey by the Southern African Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU) at UCT) were analysed using the indirect method developed by Brass. 2. Birth registration data were analysed and compared with the estimated number of births to identify regions with greater under-registration. The number of births recorded in the health services was analysed by province in order to assess and explore alternatives within health authorities that could complement the existing system. RESULTS: 1. Published estimates of infant mortality for the period from 1990 range from 40 to 71/1,000 births and estimates based on national household surveys conducted in this period from 11 to 81/1,000 births. 2. Completeness of birth registration in the nine provinces ranges from less than 10% in the Eastern Cape, North West and Northern Province to 60% in the Western Cape. An overall improvement from 19% to 60% could be achieved if births recorded through the health services were included in the vital registration system. CONCLUSIONS: The infant mortality rate in South Africa is not known with any certainty. The extent of completeness of the birth registration system was 19%, which indicates a need for urgent improvement in order to provide key health status indicators. This study indicates that there is some potential for improving the extent of birth registration if it could be facilitated through the health service. However, this alone would not achieve complete registration. RECOMMENDATIONS: Surveys will have to be relied upon until such time as routinely available statistics are accurate. The October Household Survey conducted annually by the Central Statistical Service as potentially an important source of health status information. It is imperative that either the design of the birth history questionnaire be improved or that it be replaced by a less frequent but more specialised demographic and health survey.